A Collection of Geopolitical Essays by Velina Tchakarova

Author:Velina Tchakarova [Tchakarova, Velina]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2022-03-16T23:00:00+00:00

April 2021

This essay appeared first in Raisina Special Files 2021

7 WILL CHINA GET EMBROILED IN THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPIRES?

Afghanistan is a complex geopolitical playground and remains one of the world's fiercest battlegrounds. After the recent withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban immediately began claiming territory in various parts of the country. They now control more than 85 per cent of the country. The Afghan government may be overthrown in the next few months due to the poor preparation of the country’s security forces. Against this backdrop, the question arises whether China may be the next great power to get embroiled in the ‘graveyard of empires’.

Great powers have always tried and failed to turn Afghanistan into a hotbed for their geopolitical ambitions. America is the latest superpower to suffer a catastrophic defeat in the country after two decades of unsuccessful occupation and nation-building. Washington's poor performance in delivering major energy, infrastructure, and connectivity projects has been one of its biggest failures over the past twenty years. Meanwhile, Beijing is carefully preparing to fill the void left by the US.

China’s position in Afghanistan

China is pursuing three main objectives in Afghanistan: avoiding a further expansion of the conflict and all-out civil war, promoting intra-Afghan negotiations, and preventing the rise of terrorist forces and activities. In this respect, China is relying on intensified relations with Russia (the Dragonbear), Iran, and Pakistan.

Afghanistan is geostrategically located in a hotspot linking the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and Europe. China views the country as a major geopolitical puzzle piece between Pakistan and Iran, both of which have already deepened their ties with Beijing under the Belt and Road (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridors (CPEC) initiatives. In this context, some specific strategic projects in Taxkorgan, Wakhan and Gwadar are of immense importance. The construction of Taxkorgan Airport on the Pamir Plateau in the northwestern Uighur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang is a significant long-term investment, as Taxkorgan is "China's only county-level city bordering three countries - Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan". China and Afghanistan share an 80-km border with the Wakhjir Pass, which is the only potentially navigable pass. However, there is no road connection to the pass on the Afghan side. A potential investment would be to create a direct link to Afghanistan through Wakhan and Little Pamir as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, thus revitalizing the Silk Road in Afghanistan through the Wakhan Corridor.

A road project connecting Bozai Gonbad with the the Wakhjir Pass is currently in the implementation phase and is being financed by the Afghan government without any Chinese involvement. Whoever is in charge in Afghanistan will soon have to decide whether to reconnect the country with China by building a 50 km highway, a project estimated to be worth at least 5 million dollars. The realization of the transit corridor contains potential risks and challenges for China. Beijing considers the Wakhan a potential infiltration route for residents in Afghanistan, who vow to conduct terror activities in Xinjiang. Chinese

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